With rugby season just about to kick off at Dubai College, the timing could not be more apt with the Rugby World Cup 2011 taking place in New Zealand. Four years ago renowned world cup chokers New Zealand crashed out of the world cup in a dismal fashion in the quarterfinal against France. A lack of leadership on the field in crucial games contributed to the semifinal failures in 2003 against Australia and in 1999 against France. However, this year all signs point towards the contrary as New Zealand dominate the group stages after defeating France 37-17 in Captain Richie McCaw’s 100th test match; as well as this, the All Blacks are the only team so far not to trail any opponent when facing them. The stage is set for New Zealand to finally end their world cup drought as they bring with them a host of great talents such as Sonny Bill Williams and kicking expert Dan Carter into the tournament. So, what are there prospects? If Carter and McCaw stay healthy, they should win it. But the 24 years since they won the inaugural tournament on home soil is a heavy burden of history. They have the best athletes and play the best rugby but can they handle the weight of expectation?
Alongside the rugby giants, in Pool A there is France, Tonga and Canada. Marc Lievremont took charge of the French after the 2007 World Cup and has overseen some memorable highs, including victory in New Zealand and a Six Nations Grand Slam. But there have also been lows, such as losing 22-21 to Italy. Although they have proven capable of beating the All Blacks at a World Cup (as they showed in 1999 and 2007) their failure to repeat the trick in the pool stages means they are likely to meet England in the quarters – or Argentina, who beat them twice four years ago. Semis the target. Team Tonga led by the Maka brothers (Coach Isitolo and Captain Finau) will relish ruffling the feathers of New Zealand and France, as they did to South Africa four years ago (narrowly losing 25-20). But two wins, as they achieved four years ago, is a more realistic target. Canada can be expected to provide tough resistance to the big boys without having the talent to seriously inconvenience them. Will target the Japan and Tonga games as victory chances. Lastly, in Pool A we have Japan Speed of their game is always a delight but a lack of power means they are vulnerable to more physical sides like Canada and Tonga. Aiming for two wins but could easily end up with none.
In Pool B we have Argentina led by Felipe Contepomi, cosmopolitan star who has played in England, Ireland and France, latterly with Jonny Wilkinson at Toulon their primary playmaker; however, having picked up a knock in the early stages of the tournament doubts have been raised over his fitness. Not quite as formidable as four years ago but still capable of making life seriously difficult for England and Scotland, who they beat in the quarter finals in 2007. The encounter with the Scots will probably decide who plays New Zealand in the last eight. Against the Pumas we have England, the Six Nations champions have built momentum over last 18 months. If they negotiate a tricky pool without hiccups, have shown they can beat probable knock-out opponents France and Australia, once again all eyes look set upon the boot of Jonny Wilkinson, a faithful servant of English rugby. A third straight final is a realistic target, though 2015 may be better bet. Northern rivals Scotland share the same group and are desperate to maintain proud record of qualifying for last-eight at every World Cup but will have to beat Argentina – who they lost to in 2007 quarter finals - or England to do so. Warm-up wins have bolstered confidence and could justify world ranking of seven. World cup minnows Georgia and Romania are the final teams in Pool A and despite continued improvement, reaching the knockout stages looks beyond them, with the only possible victory for either team being against each other.
Pool C has the host nations arch rivals Australia whose expectations raised further by their Tri-Nations success but still a relatively young side. Potential winners but may have to reverse recent history against England to make the final. As well as the Wallabies, we have Ireland who handed the World Cup its first upset by defeating Australia 15-6, showing that they have the ability to make the quarter-finals, where they could play South Africa – and beyond. Italy, who have never made the knock-out stages, will be hoping to upset either Australia (unlikely) or Ireland (possible, in their last group match) to make the quarter-finals. The world cup minnows in Pool C are Russia and the USA. Playing their first world cup Russia will look to build for the future having lost their only potential chance of victory to the USA 13-6, anything other than a win in that game would have been a disaster for American rugby.
The final Pool contains defending champions South Africa who are an ageing bunch and lacking in form but their big names look refreshed after a break. With the power at their disposal, would be a surprise if they don’t make the semis. Led by captain John Smit there seems to be a mismatch of sorts as he may start on the bench due to Bismarck du Plessis exerting intense pressure for his spot. Warren Gatland’s Welsh side look spirited after narrowly being defeated in their opening encounter with South Africa 17-16 but have since then bounced back beating Samoa and look much better equipped to make the quarter finals. Pool D also has Pacific Islanders Fiji and Samoa, the former reaching the last eight at Wales’ expense last time, they will be looking to repeat the feat but have been short of form recently and could easily finish as low as fourth in the pool. Samoa will be disappointed if they don’t make last eight with the talent and experience at their disposal. Yet there chances of qualification were dealt a massive blow after losing 17-10 Wales. As the lowest ranked team in the tournament at 20th, a solitary win for Namibia would be a major achievement. But in the group of death, four defeats look inevitable.
There we have a breakdown of the prospects of the teams in the 2011 Rugby World Cup and as the tournament progresses the atmosphere is being built up to fever pitch. There will never be a better opportunity for New Zealand, on home territory, with a squad that seems to be well rounded, and that is where I will place my bet for the coveted Webb Ellis Cup. Call me conservative but there is a certain excitement aroused when the All Blacks take the pitch and the rest of the pack consisting of South Africa, Australia and England look to be chasing them already after the hosts have set the early benchmark.
Nikhil Kanade
