How do you follow up such a stunning season? That is going to be Novak Djokovic’s toughest question to answer heading into 2012. Tennis fans have a lot to look forward to next year as we see whether Djokovic can back up his sublime year with another wonderful year. Something to note is that this is an incredibly hard task to achieve – apart from Federer who had four back-to-back years of utter dominance, Nadal has failed to reproduce his greatest ever season of 2010 in 2011 so don’t underestimate the task at hand for Djokovic. There are also a lot of question marks hanging over Nadal’s head, given the relatively poor year he had in 2011, and the somewhat shocking remarks about him losing passion for the game. Every season we start the year asking whether this is the year that Andy Murray will break his duck and win his first grand slam title and this season is no different. Throw in a resurgent Roger Federer, on a 17-match unbeaten streak and you have got a potential classic of a season unfolding next year. Let’s not forget that this is an Olympics year, so we’ve got the added bonus of Olympics (at Wimbledon) three weeks following the culmination of the Wimbledon championships. Can Federer win that elusive gold singles medal that he has so desperately wanted to achieve? This season is going to be huge for every single player in the top four, each for different reasons. Can Djokovic maintain the number one ranking? Can Federer overtake Nadal and Djokovic and become number one for at least one more week, thus breaking Pete Sampras’ record of most-weeks at number one? Can Federer win a slam title and add to his burgeoning collection of 70 titles? Will there be any players to emerge and put the ‘proverbial cat amongst the pigeons’ with the big four. All that and much, much more is to be answered in the next 11 months. All you can do is fasten up, sit back and enjoy. Here are a few thoughts going into the 2012 season;
- Is Roger Federer playing better than ever?
This was a question raised on the BBC radio, after Federer won the tour finals, and it is sure to set up a stirring debate. Can anyone say that Roger Federer is a worse player these days? Yes, you may look at the stats and say he isn’t as dominant as he was years ago. But as Federer himself pointed out; “it’s only logical to improve as a player.” So, is he actually better? Firstly, you could say that it’s easy to suggest that Federer is on the decline given the fact that he’s losing more matches and he’s down to a lowly (!) ranking of number three. The thing you have to take into account is because he has set his standards so high, after the incredible season he had from 2004-2007 and given the fact that he’s now playing in an era with the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray, it is no surprise that he’s losing more matches. In 2010, Nadal raised the bar and this year, Djokovic raised the bar even higher, just like Federer did from 04-07. From that basis, you can’t expect him to dominate like he did a few years ago. Another thing to take into account, is lower ranked players now have the belief that they can beat him – his aura isn’t as strong as it used to be and players aren’t defeated in the locker room just before the match starts. He now faces greater belief, a harder ball, tougher matches and more losses – does that make him a weaker player? Some might say yes, others no – again this is up for debate. Another thing to consider is his game – the serve is just as good, if not better than it used to be, his forehand and net-play is just as good, granted he does miss more volleys nowadays. Take his backhand though, and that has invariably improved. As he mentioned himself; “everyone played into my backhand so it was always going to get better.” People state that he is not as fast as he used to be, but is that really the case? Federer’s court-speed and defending are two of the most under-rated aspects of his game. The one thing that can be said about Federer is that his mental fortitude has decreased. Over the past two years, we have seen him squander match points and great positions in matches which he has never done so before, so yes it can be said that he is mentally weaker. It’s interesting to note that Federer did admit that he struggled mentally over those squandered match points. After his title in London, Federer said; “I think it’s a mental thing, yes. Not only – sometimes, it’s also the player playing better than you. It’s fine to respect that, but I feel that when it happens that often, I do have to question myself that maybe I did something wrong. I think I’m mentally good right now. That was also one of the reasons why I did take some time off, to actually think it through, get into the right mental mindset. There is a lot of time that goes by out on the tour, during a match, you’re just trying to stay positive, but you can’t always be positive out there. It’s too difficult. That’s where maybe the doubts were just a bit too strong during certain important moments.”
He also added that his two match points against Djokovic really hurt; “it was one that hurt. It was one that makes you wonder, ‘how in the world can I end up losing this match?’ but Novak had such great momentum going this season, you just felt like it was his season. But to bounce back and not lose a match from that moment on I think shows, again, how tough I am, the right decisions I can take."
Federer stole the words out of my mouth – I was just going to point out how that US Open loss could have crushed any player, even a great champion. Federer bushed it off, regrouped and moved on.
- Will Roger Federer add to his Grand Slam collection?
Given the form Federer ended 2011 with, winning three titles and destroying anyone that attempted to stop the Fed-express; this is a serious question to ask, especially as the Australian Open is just over a month away. After watching Federer prove that reports of his professional death were greatly exaggerated, Brad Gilbert stated; “After that devastating loss at the Open, he hits the refresh button. One thing I noticed [was that], he has a twinkle in his eye. I think he likes it when people think things have passed him by. I think there’s another chapter left in the novel. [After losing that 2nd set in the final in London to Tsonga], 99 percent of the guys lose that match in the third. Winning that match shows me something. You’re going to see some more oomph out of Roger in 2012. I think he’s going to have a big year next year. A slam? Yeah, I thought he’d have to do something different to win one this year. Change a racquet or something drastic. But he just kept doing what he does. I mean, the guy never sweats.’"
Roger, himself, said that he’s hungrier than ever to be back competing for slams and adding to his Grand Slam collection. After enjoyed what he declared to be “the strongest finish I’ve ever had in my career,” he was already looking forward to what should be a gripping 2012 season. He added; “Sure, to win Grand Slams would be nice. I’ve missed out on a few occasions now this year, and maybe some last year. So I feel like it might be around the corner. Maybe not. The other players obviously have a role to play in this. I love this game more than anybody, so I’m not all of a sudden going to wake up and say I don’t like it any more. It’s a lot of sacrifice, a lot of effort I have to put in every day. But I do enjoy that because what I get in return is moments like I got [in London], with my team, with my family. It’s priceless really. So for this reason, I’m excited for next year.”
On 2012, he added; “Novak was the player of the year, which goes without saying. A guy who can win 40 matches in a row from the start of the season completely deserves it till the very end of it. I thought Andy Murray played a very good season this year. I think he’s going to be very tough to beat next year. And Rafa with his class, he’s always going to be a threat to the throne, to win all the big tournaments. I think the prospects are good. We also saw numbers five to eight are extremely close as well. Behind that, anything is possible, too. I think right now we have great quality within the top 10, even within the top 20, 25 actually. I’m looking forward to a tough season next year.”
As are we all, Roger!
- How will Novak Djokovic back up his sublime season of 2011?
This time last year, Djokovic was on the brink of a phenomenal achievement that served as a catalyst for his incredible 2011. He was about to lead Serbia to the Davis cup title and with the tournament victory, that meant so much to him and his country, he got an emotional boost that Djokovic took into this year. It should not be overlooked that his 41-match unbeaten started off with two singles wins in the Davis Cup. Nor should it be overlooked that Djokovic will not have any sort of emotional boost to start the 2012 season where he will being his quest to defend, everything he left in his wake in 2011!
Djokovic’s collapse (6-4 record post US Open) suggests that he won’t start 2012 in the same fashion as he did 2011. Even if he starts the year in perfect health, he’s got a lot to defend and given the fact that the fear factor may no longer be on his side, Roger, Rafa and Andy will be thinking that they may have weathered the Djokovic storm which in turn allows them to plot their comebacks. Having said that, Djokovic can take great comfort from the fact that it’s awfully hard to stop a player on a roll. Following his remarkable 1974, Connors started the following year on another tear (he was 43-3 going into Wimbledon). Following one of Lendl’s greatest ever years; he was 26-0 before he lost his first match in 1986. Federer also started 2007 with 12 straight wins which allowed him to pocket his third Australian Open. So for all the pressure that Djokovic faces to defend everything he won last season, past statistics suggests that he may pick up where he left off. However, how will Djokovic start 2012 given his dramatic tailing off in 2011? It’s not like he closed 2011 out as powerfully as the aforementioned players did. That is why it is going to be incredibly fascinating to see whether a replenished and well-rested Djokovic can put his late-season 2011 troubles behind him and start 2012 with a bang.
- Why it is good to be in Federer’s shoes and not Djokovic’s
How much less does Federer’s slam-less season of 2011 mean now that he has ended the year with the prestigious World Tour finals title for a record-breaking sixth time? Just ask Novak Djokovic. His three slams suddenly seem like years ago and since winning his fourth grand slam, Djokovic has been beset by injuries, burnout and a loss of motivation and desire.
There’s no question that Djokovic won more than Federer in 2011. A lot more – Djokovic had won more titles by April than Federer had done all season. And of course there was the Serb’s 41-match winning streak and his record-breaking five Master’s Series titles amongst many other astonishing stats. However, there’s one small detail that the stats won’t show. It’s Federer, not Djokovic who will look back on the 2011 season with a greater sense of satisfaction. This is because Federer ended the season top, looking down at those that couldn’t stop him from winning the final three titles of the year. What Djokovic achieved in 2011 is nothing short of mind-numbing. Everything adds up to him having one of the greatest seasons of all time. But since his final act at the US Open, now way back in mid-September, Djokovic’s dominance has diminished which has allowed Federer’s no-nonsense retribution take place. His recent revival has raised a new sense of hope and belief. If Federer can play like this, then why can’t he win more Grand Slam titles? If he can display the mental fortitude that he displayed in London, why can’t he regularly gate-crash Djokovic and Nadal’s party? Federer is in an ideal position to carry his late-season surge into the Australian Open, where it would surprise no one if Federer is as much a favourite as his rivals. Conversely, Djokovic has so much to defend and with the manner that Djokovic struggled in towards the end of 2011, he has got a lot of questions hanging over his head. It must madden Djokovic that despite what he has achieved in the year; Federer is the man with the momentum and form going into 2012.
- Will Rafael Nadal get back to his brilliant best?
There is a weird sense of déjà vu going into 2012. As mentioned above, Novak went into 2011 with a renewed sense of belief and hope after winning the Davis Cup title for Serbia. Can Rafa do the same? He has just led Spain to Davis Cup victory, culminating in a stunning match against Juan Martin del Potro. Nadal had a decent 2011, but by his own standards, he had a poor season. He has almost seemed depressed about his tennis at times and finished the season on an unpleasant note when he made his fans panic after stating that he felt “less passionate for the game.”
A frank Nadal had this to say after being beaten by Tsonga at the World Tour Finals; “I probably had a bit less passion for the game because I was more tired than usual. This was a tough year but I’ll do all [I can] to be perfect for the start of 2012. We can find excuses, we can find problems, but it’s not the moment to say that – it’s the moment to keep fighting. I will do it. It’s the moment to analysis what I did good, what I did bad, and know what I have to work on for the next month. The end of the year wasn’t easy for me; that’s hard to accept. But it gives me more of a goal for the beginning of 2012. I dream about arriving in 2012 with very good conditions. I have to work hard – working hard every day, morning, afternoon – if I’m going to have my chance to be competitive to win the big tournaments. My goal is there. My motivation, I hope the same.”
What Nadal has to do, is to take a leaf out of Federer’s book; regroup, hit the refresh button and come back fighting and as fit as ever. For what it’s worth, I think Nadal will be fine next year. He will be in the thick of things come the final weekend of all four slams and he has an excellent chance to win another major (most likely, the French Open.)
- Will some of the lower-ranked players break the duopoly that the big four have on the game?
This question is mainly aimed at Juan Martin del Potro and the likes of Tsonga and Berdych. No one can forget the run that Del Potro had to the 2009 US Open title, crushing Nadal in the semis and then masterminding a victory over Federer in five, breathtaking sets in the final. But, since then, he has been beset by injuries which have seen his ranking plummet into the 400’s. Having said that, Del Po had a great 2011 and is now ranked just outside the top 10. Look for Del Potro to have another great year, using that absolutely monstrous forehand to propel him to titles and potentially go deep in the grand slam tournaments. Also look for Tsonga to back up his stellar 2011 with another great year full of shocks and surprises. Whilst he has the game to win a Grand Slam, it is questionable whether he has the right mental mindset to go all the way, but should it all click together, then we could be seeing a new Grand Slam champion in 2012!
- What will the rankings look like come the end of the season?
I know it seems mad to suggest this, but Roger Federer is an underrated sportsman. His innate brilliance, more often than not, seems to count against him, as though he must win every match of every tournament. The skeptics suggest that Federer still has to win against the odds and use every last drop of resilience and bravery showing a never-say-die attitude along with his domineering style and grace before he can be considered a true legend of the game. He may now be 30, but Federer is attempting yet another assault on the summit of the men’s game, something which cannot be a comforting sight for the top two or for Murray who must have thought that he had done a lot to overcome Federer in the rankings. It seems impossible to shake off Federer, he just will not let go of his attachment and love for the game. He will not stop attempting to defy the odds and carry on winning. Isn’t that what the ultimate definition of greatness is? It’s a well-known fact that Federer is now 30 and getting used to being the underdog and the dark horse. Ironically, that may eventually define Federer’s elevation to a higher, different type of greatness.
Those are just some of my thoughts going into the New Year – there are many more and I, like everyone else, am shaking in excitement at the prospect of what next year can offer!
Bring it on!